August 3, 2021

Regional 2021: five challenges for Ile-de-France

The more the first round approaches, the more the candidates worry: who is going to vote in the regional elections in Ile-de-France? In Paris, the partial legislative assembly held in the 20e arrondissement on May 30 broke abstention records: only 15.5% of those registered showed up. How many will they be on June 20 and 27, on the eve of the holidays, for a ballot presented as played in advance, or almost? Who will mobilize for the future of a region with a much less assertive identity than Brittany or Alsace, for these 1,268 such varied municipalities, this puzzle where Paris adjoins Hauts-de-Seine and Seine-Saint? -Denis, one of the richest and one of the poorest departments in France? The regional and departmental regions that accompany them nevertheless conceal five major challenges for the most populous region of France, with 12 million inhabitants, the first in economic terms, but also one of the most unequal.

  • “Stop or again” for Valérie Pécresse

In 2015, Valérie Pécresse, then MP for Les Républicains (LR) for Yvelines, put an end to seventeen years of management of the region by the Socialists by beating Claude Bartolone. The score was fairly tight: in the second round, the right-wing union list won 43.8% of the vote, against 42.2% for the left, and 14% for the National Front.

Now, the left dreams of regaining the regional council, but it leaves disunited while Valérie Pécresse appears in a position of strength. All opinion polls place it well in the lead, with more than 30% of voting intentions in the first round, against less than 20% for its first competitor, Jordan Bardella (National Assembly). The former minister of Nicolas Sarkozy, aged 53, enjoys both a strong notoriety and a record deemed satisfactory by a clear majority of those questioned. She has also managed to rally behind her a large part of the right: she is invested by LR when she left the party in 2019 to create her own movement, Free !, and she has on her list several members of the presidential majority, from Modem or Agir.

More generally, Valérie Pécresse can take advantage of the apparent shift in opinion to the right. In the last poll, carried out from May 27 to 30 among 1,155 people by OpinionWay for CNews, the four left-wing lists in the running only together 31% of the voting intentions in the first round, against 50% for the right and the center right, and 19% for the extreme right.

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