World Bank worried about growth “Concentrated in a few large economies while developing and emerging countries are lagging behind”. In its forecasts published Tuesday, June 8, the Washington-based institution expects global growth of 5.6% for 2021, the highest in the past 80 years, but unevenly distributed across the planet. According to his calculations, 9 out of 10 rich countries will have regained their pre-pandemic activity level by 2022, while for two-thirds of poor and developing countries the recovery will be slower and longer.
China and the United States alone will concentrate half of world growth while it will be zero in low-income countries. GDP growth will be fastest in 2021 (7.7%) in the East Asia and Pacific region, thanks to the performance of China, followed by Latin America and Caribbean (+ 5.2%) with, at the back of the pack, sub-Saharan Africa (2.8%), then the Middle East and North Africa (2.4%). Recovery in the least developed states is more difficult because they do not have the same budgetary resources to support their economies and suffer from a shortage of vaccines.
« The global outlook is marked by high uncertainty and the existence of several risks ” adds the World Bank, which warns of possible resurgence of the Covid-19 epidemic with the emergence of more resistant, virulent and deadly variants. 1is June, the World Bank, the World Health Organization (WHO), the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) called on the international community to mobilize 50 billion dollars (41 billion euros) to increase the pace of vaccination and thus reduce the number of infections and deaths, which “Will accelerate the economic recovery and generate some $ 9 trillion in additional production gains globally by 2025 “. Major multilateral institutions warn against “ development of a two-speed pandemic Which further widens the economic gaps between countries.
Another concern of the World Bank: ” High debt levels that make the financial system vulnerable to a sudden rise in interest rates, which could be triggered by higher risk perception, inflation, or expectations of faster-than-expected monetary tightening . »
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